Trading the Regression: Capitalizing on xG Underperformance in the 2013/14 Serie A Season
Statistical anomalies in football forecasting frequently present themselves when a team’s structural capacity to generate high-quality chances completely diverges from their actual output on the scoreboard. During the 2013/14 Serie A campaign, advanced metrics like expected goals (xG) began exposing deep market inefficiencies, particularly regarding mid-table teams that were playing highly functional football but suffering…